Mixed-frequency approaches to nowcasting GDP: An application to Japan

In this paper, we discuss the approaches to nowcasting Japan’s GDP quarterly growth rates, comparing a variety of mixed frequency approaches including a bridge equation approach, Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) and factor-augmented version of these approaches. In doing so, we examine the usefulness of a novel sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) approach in extracting factors from the dataset. We also discuss the usefulness of forecast combination, considering various ways to combine forecasts from models and surveys. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, some of the mixed frequency models discussed in this paper record out-of-sample performance superior to a naïve constant growth model. Second, albeit small, the SPCA approach of extracting factors improves predictive power compared with traditional principal component approach. Furthermore, we find that there is a gain from combining model forecasts and professional survey forecasts.     

Value co-creation in sustainable tourism: A service-dominant logic approach

To mainstream sustainability, we need to understand the value gained from sustainability by users. We apply a user-centred design methodology to develop an agile, iterative, incremental and reflexive process to understand the sustainability value proposition for Lufthansa City Center travel agents. We analyse the failure of sustainability communications within the online platforms used by these agents and explore why the agents factor out sustainability information during the customer sales process. We identify how agents and customers understand sustainability, and we explore opportunities to co-create sustainability value. Furthermore, we prototype, and then test, methods of empowering travel agents to communicate sustainability to their customers as a value-adding proposition.     

Assessing job crafting competencies to predict tradeoffs between competing outcomes

We introduce the job crafting competency construct and apply it to predict tradeoffs between competing outcomes that are inherent in job crafting, like performance and well-being or engagement and withdrawal. Job crafting competencies are the clusters of individual knowledge, skills, and abilities that are necessary to achieve personal objectives through effective job crafting problem-solving. We create a framework of job crafting competencies consisting of comprehensive/simplistic heuristic information use and approach/avoidance problem-solving skills. In Study 1, we operationalize competencies as profiles demonstrated through an aptitude-oriented assessment that predicts differences in outcomes. Five distinct profiles emerged in a sample of 174 workers. The high-volume analytic problem-solving profile was associated with higher performance and strain, while the ambivalent acquiescence profile was associated with lower performance and strain. The practical problem-solving profile minimized tradeoffs between performance and strain. Rapid problem-solving and low-volume analytic problem-solving profiles were variants in between these other patterns. Study 2 used a survey of 323 workers to support the uniqueness of the five competencies, and their relationships with approach/avoidance job crafting, engagement, and withdrawal. The research identifies a new job crafting individual difference (job crafting competencies) to delineate outcomes and tradeoffs according to unique competency profiles.     

参数化机械设计中的线图处理

在机械设计中往往需要进行线图处理,本文介绍了使用VB语言对V带轮、齿轮等零件在设计时须应用线图处理设计的一种思路和方法,从而使计算机语言与机械设计紧密结合,提高设计的精准度,提高设计效率达到事半功倍的效果。     

卷烟企业制丝线管控目标分析与设计

文章基于制丝线管理目标需求进行系统目标分析,分解系统结构并且进行优化设计,旨在改善制丝线管控目标控制效果,提高生产效能。     

市政工程设计阶段的工程造价控制

工程设计阶段是市政工程项目实施全面规划的关键阶段,关系到设计方案的技术先进性与经济合理性,对工程造价控制有着重要影响。然而就目前情况来看,我国市政工程设计阶段普遍存在工程造价控制意识薄弱、前期准备工作不到位、设计方案缺乏经济性、设计收费办法不合理等问题,严重影响了工程造价控制效果。本文对市政工程设计阶段工程造价控制存在的问题以及应对措施进行探讨。     

煤矿上山掘进轨道双提升系统的设计及应用

本文介绍了煤矿长斜巷正头掘进与斜巷中段联巷掘进同时施工的新型运输方式。     

平面设计软件的教学研究

平面设计软件的教学应注意:应用软件的选择,教学书目的选择,硬件设备的配置,教学方法的改进,学生自学能力和艺术设计能力的培养,优化教学效果。     

Optimal insurance in the presence of reinsurance

This paper studies an optimal insurance and reinsurance design problem among three agents: policyholder, insurer, and reinsurer. We assume that the preferences of the parties are given by distortion risk measures, which are equivalent to dual utilities. By maximizing the dual utility of the insurer and jointly solving the optimal insurance and reinsurance contracts, it is found that a layering insurance is optimal, with every layer being borne by one of the three agents. We also show that reinsurance encourages more insurance, and is welfare improving for the economy. Furthermore, it is optimal for the insurer to charge the maximum acceptable insurance premium to the policyholder. This paper also considers three other variants of the optimal insurance/reinsurance models. The first two variants impose a limit on the reinsurance premium so as to prevent insurer to reinsure all its risk. An optimal solution is still layering insurance, though the insurer will have to retain higher risk. Finally, we study the effect of competition by permitting the policyholder to insure its risk with an insurer, a reinsurer, or both. The competition from the reinsurer dampens the price at which an insurer could charge to the policyholder, although the optimal indemnities remain the same as the baseline model. The reinsurer will however not trade with the policyholder in this optimal solution.     

A structural framework for modelling contingent capital

This paper develops a structural model of contingent capital. In contrast to existing approaches we explicitly link the firm’s total payout to its cost of debt, leading to a total payout that is linear in—as opposed to proportional to—asset value. In the special case that asset value evolves as affine geometric Brownian motion we derive closed-form expressions for limiting (i.e. perpetual) bond values. The proposed model is flexible, so that it can be used to gauge the relative merits of different variations of contingent capital, and parsimonious, so that it is relatively easy to implement in practice. An empirical example using data from the Canadian banking sector is provided that illustrates how the model can generate insights into problems that are of interest to both regulators and issuers of contingent capital (e.g. what range of conversion prices would be consistent with regulatory guidelines, and how expensive is contingent debt over this range).